We are pleased to present “Defying the odds”, published in association with Mergermarket.
This report provides invaluable insights into M&A and private equity (PE) activity in Italy in the first half of 2025, as well as an outlook for the rest of the year.

Highlights include:

 

• M&A value defies volume softness. With macro headwinds and trade uncertainty building in the background, Italian M&A volume fell by 17% in H1 2025, mirroring the wider European trend. However, a wave of domestic bank mergers helped Italy buck the regional slump, pushing aggregate deal value up 17% to €44.6bn, outperforming a 2% decline across Europe.
• Banking consolidation drives value, I&C leads volume. Financial services is the clear deal value sector frontrunner, representing 33% of the total after a 1,973% surge. Meanwhile, despite experiencing a quieter period, industrials & chemicals (I&C) remained the bedrock of dealmaking, commanding 23% of transaction volume.
• Private equity continues to place bold bets. Italian private equity activity slowed in the first half, with deal value down 20% to €9.6bn amid high financing costs and trade uncertainty. Despite the caution, sponsors remained active at the large-cap end, executing complex, billion-euro carve-outs and strategic partnerships in sectors like financial services and I&C.
• Continuation funds mark their arrival. Signifying a maturing PE market, continuation funds are finally emerging as a key strategic tool. While still rare in Italy, landmark GP-led deals by Ambienta and CVC Capital Partners have set an important precedent. These secondaries, which have exploded globally for a record US$75bn in transaction value last year, are a welcome development that provides an alternative exit route.